Would KNBT be moving to Allentown in a FREE MARKET STATE OF NATURE?? Without the Dread RENT SUBSIDIES???
Who the fuck cares? It worked.
NIZ Opponents: It’s Good That KNBT Is Moving to Allentown BUT BUT BUT!!
October 16, 2012 by · 13 Comments
This is a blog about Pennsylvania!
Would KNBT be moving to Allentown in a FREE MARKET STATE OF NATURE?? Without the Dread RENT SUBSIDIES???
Who the fuck cares? It worked.
June 18, 2013 By Jon Geeting Leave a Comment
TPM: In an interview with The New Republic, Politico editor-in-chief John Harris admitted that Silver wasn’t one of his lifelines in the 2012 campaign [...] “I admire how he has built a franchise,” Harris said. “I roll my eyes at how he gets up on his high horse quite a lot on different topics.” Jim [...]
June 9, 2013 By Jon Geeting 2 Comments
Alex Trujillo sounds like a real mensch, and on that level it’s sad to see that his 55-year old business Supermercado Mi Tierra closing up shop. This is ultimately a good thing for the neighborhood though, because C-Town is going to be a decent step up in terms of product selection, and they’re going to [...]
June 17, 2013 By Jon Geeting Leave a Comment
Tom Hartley continues to impress at the Bethlehem Parking Authority. I’m not a big fan of the multi-space meters either because there’s nothing worse than having to stand in line to pay for parking. But BPA’s data does show usage of the Main Street Commons parking deck increased last year, so the multi-space meters haven’t [...]
May 13, 2013 By Jon Geeting Leave a Comment
The point of political blogging is not that you’ll directly reach so many voters that you’ll shape opinions about elections. The point is that for every couple dozen low-information voters, there’s a *political friend* who people ask who to vote for the week before an election. The point of blogging is to shape the opinions [...]
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I don’t think you try to care about why people don’t like large aspects of this project. I happen to care.
Of course its good that the bank is moving to Allentown. However, the building that they are occupying sits on the site of a former bank headquarters. And other bank headquarters have been in that neighborhood. So there’s nothing magical about a bank returning to Allentown.
I’m not particularly worried about landowners or lessors in surrounding communities. However–the question of the project is not whether a few companies will move to Allentown. They will. Its whether the project will “work” through restoration of Allentown’s tax base and city finances. The jury is out on that, and many–including me–believe that the cost of the arena will significantly limit the impact on Allentown’s city finances for a long time, particularly if it isn’t used much, which it probably won’t be.
“However–the question of the project is not whether a few companies will move to Allentown. They will. Its whether the project will “work” through restoration of Allentown’s tax base and city finances.”
I look at this in terms of equilibria. The test of whether this works or doesn’t work is whether Allentown’s economy downtown shifts to a higher growth equilibria. Either the tax district works to anchor expectations around a higher growth future for the city, or it doesn’t. So far, since the lawsuit ended its been one piece of good news after another on development and business relocations. That’s the trend we’re looking for.
Also, what’s magical is the 275 new people downtown. How many people does it take to support a restaurant, or a gym, or a dry cleaner, etc. The magic lies in adding more people downtown and enlarging the market available to service businesses. The old bank building couldn’t accommodate 11 floors full of people. That’s the difference.
The test is how much stronger the entire Lehigh Valley is through this process. If Allentown gains but the Valley as a whole is worse off, this will have been an unmitigated failure.
So far it’s following that track because all the relocations announced will leave gaping holes in other areas of the Lehigh Valley. That does not make the Valley stronger, it’s trading pieces around the same board.
You really do need to expand your ability to think more broadly, over longer time frames, etc.
Over the longer time frame, commercial building owners outside of Allentown will respond by adjusting down their asking rents to the market-clearing price, to compete with lower rents in Allentown. And overall, the LV will be better off for it.
You’ll learn as you get older and actually have some real world experience that there are no certainties anywhere Jon. And what happens in the interim matters.
Your cavalier attitude toward people’s lives is distressing.
Not actually a counterargument
Actually the counterargument has been made many times, and never refuted by you or anyone else. Whenever I hear someone talking in absolutes about projects like this I know I’m dealing with someone who is either very inexperienced or a hack.
Unfortunately you’re both, and that’s really bad.
So again here’s the argument –
Structured not for the benefit of the Lehigh Valley but for Allentown.
Carries significant risk to Allentown anyway (the arena has the potential to be a large boat anchor).
Pits areas of the Lehigh Valley against each other (regionalism is dead).
Pat Browne gets a $300k/year bribe for being Reilly’s and Pawlowski’s water boy.
Pawlowski gets to leave in 2014 before the shit may hit the fan. (“Everything was fine when I left, Julio must have fucked it up.”)
Reilly takes tens of millions out of Allentown and back to Saucon Valley, no matter what else happens (increasing the risk to all who remain).
Jennings gets to torpedo what’s left of his reputation even more.
You come back with no proof on anything, just definitive statements that we should remain calm and all is well.
That’s not comforting.
1. completely disagree. Valleywide lower rents are good for the region on net, even if it means some landowners take losses. The winners are much more numerous than the losers.
2. I worry about this all the time, but it seems to me that the best course of action is to reduce the risk by trying to add as many EIT payers as possible paying in to the NIZ. What is the better course of action at this point if you’re worried about the arena?
3. It pits municipalities against each other only if you think single-minded pursuit of revenue is the only important thing. A stronger Allentown is good for the regional economy. It’s good for the growth of the region’s labor market, consumer goods market, and real estate market. The only reason it pits municipalities against each other on revenue is because there is no regional tax base. With a regional tax base, Allentown’s revenue gains would be everybody’s revenue gains.
All the other stuff is just a lot of cynical speculation that seems off to me for various reasons. Can’t prove or disprove any of it, so I don’t really see the point in arguing about it. There’s always a chance a project like this could go bust, and then it will be time to mete out political accountability.
But until that happens, I think it would be a better use of people’s political energy to focus on ways to unlock the maximum amount of economic growth in this tax district. It’s a unique historical quirk that Allentown got this district from the state. People should be thinking about how to exploit this thing. There is a potentially a firehose of state cash in play if people are willing to adopt pro-growth land use and tax policies.
1. Another affirmative statement with no support and missing a crucial element – it doesn’t matter what rents are if there aren’t tenants.
2. Your course of action is best for Allentown, but there needs to be other mitigating factors for the benefit of the valley at large.
3. A stronger Allentown is not good for the regional economy if it comes at the expense of a weaker Bethlehem, Easton, and suburbs. Again, this only works if the Lehigh Valley as a whole is stronger as a result. The early results are this is at best a break-even economically, and with the tax revenues that now will flow into JB’s pocket it’s actually a net negative for the region and the state. A lot has to happen for this to be even a remote success for the Lehigh Valley.
Pat Browne is getting $300k/year from JB and Topper, that’s not speculation. JB is taking tens of millions in tax revenues out of Allentown and into his pocket, that’s not speculation.
I’ll continue to disagree – you have to stop thinking only Allentown. If Allentown succeeds at the expense of the Valley, this is a huge failure.
Think more broadly Jon, and over a longer time frame.
The holes will be in the suburbs that can’t compete. For me and people I talk to at least.. it’s just solely about rent. It’s placemaking also. Suburbs that haven’t built in a walkable, TND fashion will flounder. I live in the burbs and happen to like the burbs. My particular burb has rural roots and I fight to protect that when possible as a QOL measure. But it’s changed fundamentally and I accept that. Still I like a yard and living near a stream. BUT I do understand the simple fact that for years and years we’ve subsidized suburban office parks. Thats a fact.
Survey after survey show Young professionals prefer a return to the walkable downtown mixed use enviros vs. suburban office parks. In fact my company actively sought rental space in a downtown main St. atmosphere (Macungie) vs. say a strip mall or characterless suburban office park.
For me it’s a small town adjacent to the township I live in. But for many of my cohorts (late 20′s early 30′s) they want the downtowns. Downtowns are going to make a comeback. I honestly believe that. Which is why as my township infills (inevitable I think) I prefer a TND/village center design. If we do this (and it looks like we are) we’ll be just fine. It’s the burbs that refuse to course adjust that will see a decline. And since for years greenfield development has been subsidized I’m ok with this re-leveling of the playing field.
Sorry I meant NOT just solely about rents… it’s about character. Thats where the cookie cutter office parks will struggle.
Jon,
I think that the move is good, I only point out that they are replacing a bank headquarters with a … Bank headquarters!
One of the problems of the project (and others like the water lease) is that the administration stays away from goals and metrics, so the public never really knows how to evaluate it. The local media is of no help in this manner, unfortunately. Any public policy student who proposed devoting this level of resources to shift perceptions or move to a “higher growth equilibrium” (whatever that means) would get a D. Those are appropriate goals fro an ad campaign, not tearing down blocks of a city.
You find it tedious, but if the city can’t pay its bills and get out of distressed status, the project fails. Furthermore, arenas and minor league sports have a long history of ensnaring poor cities into additional financial disasters. There are dozens of cities like Allentown in the northeast and Midwest, sady.