Colby Itkowitz reports that John Callahan was in DC for DCCC candidate training, leading to speculation that he may have another go at Charlie Dent for the 15th District seat.
I think this would be a smart choice for several reasons.
Exhibit A: Charlie Dent’s bait and switch on Medicare leaves him extremely vulnerable in 2012. Dent ran his campaign as a valiant protector of Medicare, disingenuously blasting the Democrats for “half a trillion dollars” in Medicare cuts. But once he got reelected, not only did he vote to keep all those same cuts, he voted to phase out the program. This vote is hideously unpopular. To get a sense of how toxic this vote is, just look at the hilarious spectacle of panicked House Republican freshmen begging Barack Obama not to hold them accountable for ending Medicare. Welcome to politics, n00bs.
Exhibit B: Barack Obama and Bob Casey are going to be at the top of the ticket, and Callahan will benefit from their coattails. Democrats have the lead on the generic ballot. Obama and Casey both need to win the 15th district, so Callahan will be able to piggyback on a very well-funded, well-organized turnout operation. Whoever makes it through the Republican primary is guaranteed to be unelectable in the general election. Faced with a weak field, the GOP base is going to nominate radical candidates for both the White House and the Senate, and they will have negative coattails for Charlie Dent.
Exhibit C: While other bloggers have attributed Callahan’s loss in 2010 to candidate effects, or ideological effects, there just isn’t any evidence for this view. 2010 was a terrible year for all Democrats, and that’s because their base didn’t show up. The electorate in 2010 was much older, whiter and more conservative than the 2008 electorate, and the 2012 electorate is bound to look more like 2008 than 2010. Youth and minority turnout are much higher in Presidential elections than in midterms.
Exhibit D: One of Dent’s most effective talking points was probably that Bethlehem’s deficit was the result of Callahan’s fiscal mismanagement. This was always wrong – the deficit was the result of the weak economy depressing tax receipts - but the fact of the deficit no doubt made this seem like a reasonable explanation to a lot of people. By the time the campaign starts next year, the economy will probably be doing considerably better, and Bethlehem’s revenues will have mostly recovered. The hotel, the mall and conference center, the Greenway will all be functioning, and several more projects will probably be under construction. People will be feeling good about Bethlehem’s future, and the case that Callahan’s not doing a good job is going to feel tone deaf. If Callahan puts the Bethlehem comeback story front and center in his campaign in a less generic way than in 2010, that’s a powerful political narrative.
Exhibit E: A few miscellaneous factors would seem to favor Callahan. Charlie Dent is a possible Senate candidate. If he doesn’t run for Senate this year, it’s going to be a very long time before he can try again, because Pat Toomey has the other seat, so he’d have to wait until the next time the Casey seat is up. That’s got to be pretty tempting, especially considering how weak the GOP field is. Dent’s supposedly more powerful now because he’s on Appropriations, but the pork ban has left him totally impotent, unable to hand out large cardboard checks to boost his popularity. Maybe he’ll flaunt it closer to the election, but that would leave him vulnerable to a Republican primary. It seems likely that he’ll face a Tea Party primary anyway. There have been a few votes where he said he didn’t want to cut spending as much as the ultras in the Republican Study Committee. He’s also going to have to vote for the debt ceiling increase, and that alone could sink him in a GOP primary.
Love it! You're so blind to why Callahan lost, it's entertaining. Keep it up and I hope the DNC takes your opinion.
Dent's biggest risk is if Callahan tells the DNC to blow it out their collective asses and run as Lehigh Valley Moderate. This area will not elect a Progressive Liberal, and Callahan allowed himself to be categorized as such. Sure hope he does it again.
Be his campaign manager. Please.
This post is proof you are an idiot.
Anon 3:25,
With all due respect, What-Am-I-Gettings-From-Big-Government? provides ample proof of his utter stupidity with multiple posts each and every day.
You are cordially invited to come and get a load of all the comedy you like.
What's more, this comment section is your canvass. You are an artist, a poet, if you will. Feel free to express yourself liberally…
Your view is that Callahan lost because he was too liberal. Please find any proof that this is the reason he lost.
Most people aren't political junkies and don't have strong or coherent ideologies. Even when I'm going door to door turning out the Democratic "base" for elections, most of these people are thinking about politics like team sports and are not especially well informed on the issues. The core truth of political science is that the fundamentals, specifically trends in real disposable income and the unemployment rate, determine elections. Ideology doesn't matter. Barack Obama got elected in 2008 because of the economy. Republicans got elected in 2010 because the economy was still bad. If the economy's doing a lot better in November 2012, Callahan will cruise to office. If it's still muddling along, he probably won't.
The proof is in several areas:
1. Biden shows up to support Callahan, then 2 days later Callahan supports Specter. Doesn't take a genius to see Callahan sold out for DNC support.
2. Callahan tapdancing on health care reform.
3. Staff turnover, driven by the DNC.
Jon, you're also misreading my post. I don't think Callahan is too liberal. I believe he sold himself out to the DNC who painted him as liberal, too liberal for this area. His mistake was hitching his wagon to the Obama/Reid/Pelosi disaster. Big mistake, he had a chance to knock Dent off if he had only run a more local race instead of being dictated to by Washington.
Callahan lost because his campaign disconnected from the very people they needed in the trenches. There was no enthusiasm by many foot soldiers to take orders from Napoleon Schall.
Jon, you really need to take your blinders off. Most of The precincts that will be getting added to this district with PA's loss of one seat will be coming from the west, in Berks county. REPUBLICAN LEANING KUTZTOWN BURBS, that vote Republicans into the legislature.
If there were some way to get Reading into the 15th district, Dent would be worried, but that won't happen.
Dent now sits on the appropriations committee, where he can bring home the bacon.
It's political reality, and an example of why John Murtha was untouchable for so long out west. It will be harder for Callahan to win in the newer district. Demographically it will lean more to Dent.
I live and work in reality, but you can have your surreal world of dreams. I like John too, but I can tell you right now what Dent will do: Run ad after ad saying it is the same old candidate. It won't be pretty. Callahan's only hope is to define DEnt first. And I don't see that happening.
Callahan lost because his campaign disconnected from the very people they needed in the trenches. There was no enthusiasm by many foot soldiers to take orders from Napoleon Schall.
Jon, you really need to take your blinders off. Most of The precincts that will be getting added to this district with PA's loss of one seat will be coming from the west, in Berks county. REPUBLICAN LEANING KUTZTOWN BURBS, that vote Republicans into the legislature.
If there were some way to get Reading into the 15th district, Dent would be worried, but that won't happen.
Dent now sits on the appropriations committee, where he can bring home the bacon.
It's political reality, and an example of why John Murtha was untouchable for so long out west. It will be harder for Callahan to win in the newer district. Demographically it will lean more to Dent.
I live and work in reality, but you can have your surreal world of dreams. I like John too, but I can tell you right now what Dent will do: Run ad after ad saying it is the same old candidate. It won't be pretty. Callahan's only hope is to define DEnt first. And I don't see that happening.